May 18, 2014

The Looming Nightmare for the GOP

Why the Republicans are destine to lose in 2016 for their own good

 

I’ve broken this previously one-post topic into 2 separate parts. The first part I’m posting today will concern the Electoral College and the dire challenge it presents the Republican Party. The second part, which will be posted next week, deals with why this predicted defeat in 2016 is (in my humble opinion) actually good for the GOP and the nation as a whole. Hope you enjoy the article. Leave comments. I appreciate all feedback, good or bad. I can also be reached at email: gsgilbert90@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.

 

The date is January 20th, 2017. President Barack Obama takes his last steps as President of the United States on the Capitol rotunda. He looks up and sees his successor ready to take the oath of office he took just 8 short years ago when he became the nation’s first African-American President. Now his successor is ready to make history of her own as President-elect Hillary Rodham Clinton places her right hand on the Bible and repeats the Presidential Oath of Office after the Chief Justice of the United States.

This scenario might as well be an episode of Tales from the Crypt to some Republicans, but this scenario is very much grounded in reality. The before mentioned scenario is plausible at worst and likely at best, and it’s a reality that’s causing many Republican strategists to cry themselves to sleep a night. The thought of another Clinton in the White House is revolting enough to many conservatives, and the thought that all of the hard work stagnating and obstructing the Obama agenda these past years would be rewarded with another presidential election lost, which would be 3 straight (and a popular vote loss in 6 of the last 7), is downright disheartening to many conservatives.

As of now the Republican Party has no serious contenders to defeat Hillary. Ran Paul is a good start but his foreign policy positions make him toxic to many big Republican donors. Jeb Bush would be an excellent choice if his last name were anything but Bush. Meanwhile, Chris Christie has yet to meet a bridge he didn’t want to close down and Tea Party senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are nice for rallying the base but have nearly zero mainstream appeal. This, coupled with an electoral map that would make Reagan blush, means the Republican Party is almost certain to fall to Hillary in 2016 barring some major event that shifts the political landscape on its head.

But despite this dire position, if you read the title of this entry then you know that my theory is that a landslide or overwhelming defeat for the Republicans may be damaging in the short-term (2016, 2020), but in the long term it may be the best thing to happen to the party and more importantly, the United States. Yes, what I am saying (and as crazy as it sounds I’m being as unbiased as possible here) is that America needs the Republican Party to take an epic beating in 2016.

If I only cared about my political party then the Republican Party being lost in political purgatory as they have been for some time now would be just fine with me. But I’m putting my ideology aside here and saying that a monumental defeat in 2016 will act sort of as a defibrillator and shock life back into the Republican Party, and ONLY a jaw-dropping defeat will do this. One that makes the party look in the mirror and realize once and for all that if it doesn’t adapt to a changing America then it will become extinct. To back up my theory I’ve brought along my trusting friends of facts & statistics as well as history. Combining these two we can begin to form a clearer picture of major forces at work that may lead to a horrible loss for the GOP, and an amazing return to prominence on the national stage because of it.

First things first, let’s start with why the GOP will lose in 2016. In making this prediction there’s no better place to start than the Electoral College. It is somewhat ironic that the very system that unfairly gave the Republican Party the White House in 2000 is now returning to bite them. Indeed, were it not for the Electoral College the title of this post might be “Why the GOP may lose in 2016, maybe.” Instead, the Electoral College has given me the confidence to be able to say without qualification that the GOP is almost certain to lose in 2016. First let’s take a look at the map:

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This map has no liberal bias like many irrational conservatives like to say about anything that doesn’t fit into their view of the world. Instead what it has is a death sentence for the GOP in 2016. Obama won quite handily in 2012 despite a lagging economy, more negative campaigning than 2008, and a vitriolic opposition in the Tea Party. That, however, isn’t the death sentence. What’s so troubling about this map from a Republican perspective is that Obama won handily in many states that are absolutely critical to a GOP victory in 2016, and these states have not been too impressed with the GOP’s antics lately as many polls still show Republican approval ratings — such as in Ohio — lower than Democratic approvals.

These trends seem to be working for Hillary as well. A recent poll conducted by Quinnipiac shows Clinton beating every single potential Republican challenger; from the 5% lead she carries over current Ohio Governor, John Kasich, to the 14% lead she has over Tea Party darling, Senator Ted Cruz.

No Republican President — let me repeat that for dramatic effect — NO REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT has ever won the Presidential Election without winning the State of Ohio. That’s 150 years of history stating that if Republicans can’t win Ohio they can’t win the Presidency. The fact that the state’s relatively popular Republican Governor cannot even come within the margin of error of Clinton is not only discouraging for the Right, but down right saddening for a party that claims to be fighting against “big government” for the heartland of America. Ohio is essential the prototypical heartland state, and apparently it finds little to like about the party claiming to be fighting for it.

Outside Ohio, the map doesn’t get prettier. This is driven home by the fact that President Obama could have afforded to lose Ohio and the critical state of Florida (voting issues and all), and still won the Presidency. This is mainly because of new swing states that have come into play only recently and two of the biggest (and somewhat shocking) ones are right next to one another — Virginia and North Carolina.

Virginia and North Carolina represent two things: The changing demographics of America as a whole and the Republican Party’s challenges in dealing with it. Both state were won easily by President Bush in 2000 and 2004. Both have been reliable Republican bastions since the Carter Era. Both are in the South. Both also, however, are shifting faster than quicksand in the Sahara away from the GOP. Virginia is moving somewhat faster than North Carolina, but both are moving towards becoming at the very least swing states. Given the fact that these states were formerly solid Republican states this new “swing state” status isn’t good for the GOP’s electoral math.

The Why behind these two states political change is just as interesting as the phenomenon itself. Virginia and North Carolina are changing and this change is fueled mainly by changing demographics. Both states are getting younger as well as more diverse, but both states also have a larger number of transplant residents than most states in the union. While not many Americans are flocking in droves to move to states like North Dakota (no offense to the good people of North Dakota. I’ve heard nothing but good things about your state — although admittedly I rarely hear anything) people are flocking to states like North Carolina and Virginia. These people, shockingly enough, don’t check their political beliefs at the state line; and these transplants have a habit of being from very liberal states such New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. The effects of this are apparent. With more liberal residents moving in, the voting population changes and with that comes politicians who must adapt to this new changing political climate or be sent home next election. Once you add this factor to the simple truth that these states are experiencing growth in minority populations and the GOP’s political platform is being seen as hostile towards minorities (whether you consider that fair or unfair it is the obvious truth) and these states have suddenly come up for grabs in presidential elections.

Virginia and North Carolina are the most shining examples of this, but states like Colorado (which is increasingly moving up very high on the list of former swing states leaning Democratic — get it, “high”… I’ll move on) and Nevada are also examples. To a lesser degree even states like Georgia and Texas are moving more Democratic, although these states were so reliably Republican to begin with it may take much longer for them to become competitive. Now this trend isn’t just happening to Republicans, some states have begun to move from the Democratic to Republican side as well. The best example of this would be West Virginia. The problem is it seems states moving away from the Democrats these days seem to be very low on the electoral votes chart, meaning their loss wouldn’t be too brutal for Democrats (except for in a very close election).

This trend has shifted the Electoral College map to where Republicans must play defense from day one, and rarely get the opportunity to play offense in a presidential election. This seems destine to remain the same going into 2016, and if that’s the case the Republican Party might be staring at a Hillary Clinton Presidency after 2016.

Today I’ve gone over why I see a disaster looming for the GOP in 2016 (as well as driven away my 1 reader from North Dakota). Next week I’ll go over why the doom and gloom of 2016 may lead to a brighter future for the Grand Old Party, and why EVERY American, regardless of political affiliation, should be keeping their fingers crossed hoping that happens. Until next time… 

 

December 19, 2013

The Grand Fall of the Grand Old Party — Part I

The results from the 2012 elections last year that resulted in the re-election of President Obama by a sizable margin and Republican losses in the Senate and the House (although Republicans retained the House, Democrats received nearly 1.4 million more votes than Republicans in House elections) were bad for the GOP. Add to that the debt ceiling and government shutdown fiasco a few months ago and I can’t blame many of my Republican friends for feeling a bit sour about the state of American politics. Republicans have had a pretty bad 2 years; a far cry from the “tea party revolution” of 2010 that swept in and won a net 63 House seats. Combine these recent events with the major long term challenges the party faces and the current trajectory of the Republican Party is undeniably dire. They are headed to permanent minority status nationally and are being reduced a single region, single race, single gender party, and many sensible conservatives know it.

But this entry, despite the title, is not just me endlessly bashing the Republican Party and anyone who supports it (there will be plenty of time for that later). And although I undeniably take a certain joy in watching the Republican Party civil war play out and seeing them finally reaping what they’ve sown over the past decades; I also see the dangers this presents for our political system.

Not since the disappearance of the Whig Party in the 1840s has the United States had a major political party fall off a cliff and into irrelevancy and for good reason; a functioning two-party system is somewhat essential to our democracy thanks to the Constitution. The Electoral College combined with the Winner-take-all design of the House of Representatives (which differs from the proportional style popular in most European countries) makes it much more difficult for serious Third Parties to gain any real positions of power in America.

If it were not for these facts I would honestly continue gleefully watching the demise of the Republican Party while they go the way of the Whigs along with several other of my liberal friends. However, because of the mechanics of our political system, I can’t. Instead I find myself worried that the Republican Party may in fact fade into obscurity for a prolonged period of time and even this displaced, Northeastern liberal Democrat worries about the consequences that could have. In short, America needs a stronger Republican Party and the reason for this need is simple; Third parties are basically made impracticable by constitutional restraints in addition to the legislative rules and nature of the United States Congress. Therefore, the Republican Party must repair itself and become a GOVERNING party again.

 

 

So how do they do this? Well to simplify it the Republican Party must address three major issues that have gotten them where they are now:

– Leadership & Direction
– Demographics
– Ideology

These issues are not mutually exclusive, in fact they each affect one another in some way, and over the course of the next few weeks I’ll be elaborating on each of these. For today, I want to focus on what’s possibly the biggest issue for the Republican Party…Ideology.

Now when I speak of ideology I do not mean that the current members of the Grand Old Party need to check their beliefs at the door and adopt positions merely for political gain (Romney tried this and it failed…horribly). Instead I simply mean that the Republican Party as a whole must become more ideologically diverse. This is something the Democrats had to learn in the 80s.

After controlling the Congress and the Presidency for the majority of 4 decades through a complex but united coalition, in the 1970s the Democrats began splintering much in the same way Republicans have done recently. What used to be a party of minorities, women, southern Dixiecrats, and social liberals began “purging” certain voting blocs from its ranks in the 70s. The result was a party that could claim its purity in liberal ideology, but couldn’t come close to winning a national election — getting trounced in 3 consecutive presidential elections in ’80, ’84, and ’88 and losing 5 of 6 presidential races between 1968 and 1988. The first reactions to these beatings were almost a mirror image of what many hardline Republicans were thinking the day after Romney’s defeat in 2012. Democrats in the 80s didn’t blame their demands for ideological purity or that they were too liberal to be mainstream, instead they diagnosed the problem as the opposite, they hadn’t been liberal ENOUGH. They had become to compromising and had strayed from their liberal principles. “Next time we need to nominate a REAL liberal, not some DINO moderate” was the thinking most liberals had; and so they did, nominating liberal after liberal who had no hopes of appealing to the center with each coming presidential election and with each election came another defeat at the hands of the Republican nominee. 

If this “purge” of impure members and the subsequent losses in presidential races sounds familiar to you it’s because it’s eerily similar to what’s happened with the Republican Party since roughly 2006. The solution, though not easy, is to begin accepting a wider tent. Democrats after the election of George H.W. Bush saw the writing on the wall and finally began looking in the mirror. They began courting the same voters they once considered “impure”, they started opening up their ideological tent to more voices and ideas; these more moderate Democrats called themselves the “New Democrats” and began presenting themselves as center-left moderates who appreciated the importance of pragmatism and compromise. They supported some traditionally conservative positions such as support for welfare reform, cutting taxes, and free trade agreements. They didn’t want BIG government but instead they wanted SMART government. New, moderate leaders emerged to replace the old guard. The result was a presidential victory in 1992 by Clinton followed by popular vote victories in 4 of the next 5 presidential elections. 

Now this is simply a generalization as I know going into more detail would be particularly nuanced and test each of your patience (if I haven’t already). But do not mistake my hope for a functioning Republican Party for benevolence towards it. Instead its just my realization that no Democratic President or Democratic Congress that does not have a super-majority will be able to accomplish anything remotely groundbreaking without a Republican Party in the minority that feels empowered enough to feel as though it can make compromises and concessions with a Democratic President or a Democratic Majority. Otherwise we will continue to get what we have been getting in Congress since 2011 — filibusters, delays, stagnation, and useless yet economically-damaging fights over the debt ceiling; none of which help progress this country forward. It’s time for the Republican Party to stop blaming everyone else (Obama, the media, Tony Romo) and begin looking internally to solve the problems that ail them. The sooner this happens, the sooner it becomes a political party relevant outside of the old Confederacy again.

Next time I’ll tackle another interesting dynamic within the Republican Party, Demographics.

October 30, 2013

Why Politics Matters

Every four years millions of Americans across the country from large, bustling cities to small, rural towns get caught up in the national spectacle that is the presidential election. After numerous debates, thousands of hours of exhaustive news coverage, and millions of campaign donations spent on campaign ads that seem to repeat themselves every five minutes, one person eventually stands as the victor of the presidential race; and then complete silence…

After all the attention the presidential race receives, after its conclusion nearly everyone except the political junkies like me just stop paying attention. The same individuals retweeting and reposting anything to help their candidate in November are now completely oblivious to the current events in Washington and the only time politics even creeps back up on their radar is after some major event or speech. Continue Reading